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Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – February 2019

One popular approach to investing based on Benjamin Graham’s methods is to use the so-called “Graham Number.”  There are some important differences between the Graham Number and the Graham Formula, but using the Graham Number is definitely useful even if the investor only uses it as a screening tactic.

I’ve selected the best companies reviewed by ModernGraham which trade below their Graham Number.  The companies selected all are found suitable for the Defensive Investor and/or the Enterprising Investor, and have been valued as undervalued based on the ModernGraham valuation model.  The full list can be found in the latest issue of my monthly Stocks & Screens report; however, to cut down on the length of the post, I’ve selected the ten which trade furthest below their Graham Number.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

These companies have demonstrated strong financial positions through passing the rigorous requirements of the ModernGraham Investor and show potential for capital growth based on their current price in relation to intrinsic value.  As such, these graham number stocks may be a great investment if they prove to be suitable for your portfolio after your own additional research.

GameStop Corp. (GME)

GameStop Corp. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.03 in 2015 to an estimated $2.45 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.3% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into GameStop Corp. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $37.34. The company pays a dividend of $1.52 per share, for a yield of 10.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 5.91, which was below the industry average of 37.1, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.68.

GameStop Corp. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG)

Signet Jewelers Ltd. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.86 in 2014 to an estimated $6.07 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.22% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Signet Jewelers Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $61.99. The company pays a dividend of $1.04 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 8.06, which was below the industry average of 30.22, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.32.

Signet Jewelers Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP)

Canfor Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.88 in 2014 to an estimated $2.18 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.34% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Canfor Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $32.18. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.17, which was below the industry average of 20.82, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.99.

Canfor Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)

CNO Financial Group Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.01 in 2014 to an estimated $1.56 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.89% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into CNO Financial Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $36.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.35 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.28, which was below the industry average of 36.08, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

CNO Financial Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.19 in 2014 to an estimated $4.19 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.57% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $34.59. The company pays a dividend of $0.38 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 5.36, which was below the industry average of 35.42, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.6.

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)

Prudential Financial Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.17 in 2014 to an estimated $12.54 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.45% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Prudential Financial Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $185.87. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.6, which was below the industry average of 30.02, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Prudential Financial Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Linamar Corporation (TSE:LNR)

Linamar Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.32 in 2014 to an estimated $8.11 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.63% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Linamar Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $99.21. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 0.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.25, which was below the industry average of 26.58, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-18.85.

Linamar Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Lincoln National Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.25 in 2014 to an estimated $7.01 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.58% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lincoln National Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $117.31. The company pays a dividend of $0.87 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.33, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Lincoln National Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.71 in 2015 to an estimated $4.02 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.17% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Unum Group revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $68.83. The company pays a dividend of $0.98 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 8.85, which was below the industry average of 32.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Unum Group fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

Invesco Ltd. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.39 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.65% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Invesco Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $33.89. The company pays a dividend of $1.15 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.21, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Invesco Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Disclaimer: 

The author held a long position in IVZ but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no specific intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours; however, the author does intend to make some trades in the next 72 hours and may select a company from this list.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice and all readers are encouraged to speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investing decisions.  Please also read our full disclaimer.

5 Low P/E Companies In The S&P 500 – February 2019

There are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected some of the most undervalued companies of S&P 500. The ModernGraham model is based on the full teachings of Benjamin Graham. All of these companies are suitable for the Defensive Investor and/or the Enterprising Investor.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

Macy’s Inc (M)

Macy’s Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.61 in 2015 to an estimated $3.68 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 0.75% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Macy’s Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $39.21. The company pays a dividend of $1.51 per share, for a yield of 5.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.01, which was below the industry average of 25.4, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.38.

Macy’s Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

Invesco Ltd. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.39 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.65% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Invesco Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $33.89. The company pays a dividend of $1.15 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.21, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Invesco Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)

LyondellBasell Industries NV is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.13 in 2014 to an estimated $10.84 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.41% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into LyondellBasell Industries NV revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $77.64. The company pays a dividend of $3.55 per share, for a yield of 4.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.68, which was below the industry average of 20.47, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.01.

LyondellBasell Industries NV performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.  (See the full valuation)

Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)

Principal Financial Group Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.9 in 2014 to an estimated $5.72 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.29% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Principal Financial Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $76.24. The company pays a dividend of $1.87 per share, for a yield of 4.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.92, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Principal Financial Group Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Lincoln National Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.25 in 2014 to an estimated $7.01 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.58% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lincoln National Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $117.31. The company pays a dividend of $0.87 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.33, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Lincoln National Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Invesco (IVZ) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to read our full disclaimer.

10 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Dividend Stock Investor – February 2019

defensive dividend investorThere are a number of great companies in the market today. I’ve selected the highest dividend yields among the undervalued companies for defensive dividend stock investors reviewed by ModernGraham. Each company has been determined to be suitable for the Defensive Investor according to the ModernGraham approach.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

The companies selected for this list may not pay what some consider to be a huge dividend, but they have demonstrated strong financial positions through passing the rigorous requirements of the Defensive Investor and show potential for capital growth based on their current price in relation to intrinsic value.  As such, these defensive dividend stocks may be a great investment if they prove to be suitable for your portfolio after your own additional research.

B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)

B&G Foods, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. . The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.94 in 2014 to an estimated $2.09 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.92% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into B&G Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.23. The company pays a dividend of $1.86 per share, for a yield of 6.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.34, which was below the industry average of 25.4, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.95.

B&G Foods, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

AT&T Inc. (T)

AT&T Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $3.06 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.53% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AT&T Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $38.89. The company pays a dividend of $1.97 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 9.56, which was below the industry average of 25.67, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-40.55.

AT&T Inc. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

Invesco Ltd. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.39 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.65% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Invesco Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $33.89. The company pays a dividend of $1.15 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.21, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Invesco Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT)

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.76 in 2014 to an estimated $1.25 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.18% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $11.47. The company pays a dividend of $1.35 per share, for a yield of 5.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.86, which was below the industry average of 49.54, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.97.

Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

People’s United Financial, Inc. (PBCT)

People’s United Financial, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.71 in 2014 to an estimated $1.04 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.89% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into People’s United Financial, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $21.65. The company pays a dividend of $0.69 per share, for a yield of 4.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.28, which was below the industry average of 14.65, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

People’s United Financial, Inc. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A+.  (See the full valuation)

H & R Block Inc (HRB)

H & R Block Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.55 in 2015 to an estimated $2.05 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.95% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into H & R Block Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $8.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.96 per share, for a yield of 3.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.39, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.68.

H & R Block Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

International Paper Co (IP)

International Paper Co qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.13 in 2014 to an estimated $3.71 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.9% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into International Paper Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $40.25. The company pays a dividend of $1.86 per share, for a yield of 3.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.3, which was below the industry average of 22.87, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-46.64.

International Paper Co performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Infosys Ltd ADR (INFY)

Infosys Ltd ADR qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.79 in 2015 to an estimated $0.99 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Infosys Ltd ADR revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $10.1. The company pays a dividend of $0.43 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.63, which was below the industry average of 44.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $2.47.

Infosys Ltd ADR performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.  (See the full valuation)

Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG)

Principal Financial Group Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.9 in 2014 to an estimated $5.72 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.29% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Principal Financial Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $76.24. The company pays a dividend of $1.87 per share, for a yield of 4.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.92, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Principal Financial Group Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Pentair PLC (PNR)

Pentair plc. Ordinary Share qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.01 in 2014 to an estimated $2.31 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.31% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Pentair plc. Ordinary Share revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $37.69. The company pays a dividend of $1.38 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.12, which was below the industry average of 28.31, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-10.63.

Pentair plc. Ordinary Share performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

What do you think?  Are these companies a good value for Defensive Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:

The author held a long position in Invesco Ltd (IVZ) and People’s United Financial Inc (PBCT) but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Nasdaq Inc Valuation – February 2019 $NDAQ

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Nasdaq, Inc. (Nasdaq), incorporated on November 13, 1979, is a holding company. The Company is a provider of trading, clearing, exchange technology, regulatory, securities listing, information and public company services. The Company manages, operates and provides its products and services through four segments: Market Services, Corporate Services, Information Services and Market Technology. Its global offerings include trading and clearing across various asset classes, trade management services, data products, financial indexes, capital formation solutions, corporate solutions, and market technology products and services. Its technology powers markets across the globe, supporting equity derivative trading, clearing and settlement, cash equity trading, fixed income trading and various other functions.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NDAQ – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,326,562,209 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.97 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 97.70% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.88 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.64 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.97 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -14.78 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.51
MG Growth Estimate 7.56%
MG Value $82.94
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $50.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $29.86
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.19%
Current Price $87.38
% of Intrinsic Value 105.36%

Nasdaq Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.34 in 2015 to an estimated $3.51 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8.19% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Nasdaq Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $61.15. The company pays a dividend of $1.7 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.88, which was above the industry average of 20.29. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.59.

Nasdaq Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.59
Graham Number $61.15
PEmg 24.88
Current Ratio 0.97
PB Ratio 2.64
Current Dividend $1.70
Dividend Yield 1.95%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links:

 

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,370,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $6,570,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,956,000,000
Total Assets $15,700,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,663,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,251,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 164,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.00
Dec2018 $2.73
Dec2017 $4.33
Dec2016 $0.64
Dec2015 $2.50
Dec2014 $2.39
Dec2013 $2.25
Dec2012 $2.04
Dec2011 $2.15
Dec2010 $1.91
Dec2009 $1.25
Dec2008 $1.55
Dec2007 $3.46
Dec2006 $0.95
Dec2005 $0.57
Dec2004 -$0.02
Dec2003 -$1.45
Dec2002 $0.40
Dec2001 $0.35
Dec2000 $0.21
Dec1999 $0.86

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.51
Dec2018 $2.69
Dec2017 $2.58
Dec2016 $1.79
Dec2015 $2.34
Dec2014 $2.22
Dec2013 $2.06
Dec2012 $1.91
Dec2011 $1.91
Dec2010 $1.80
Dec2009 $1.69
Dec2008 $1.70
Dec2007 $1.42
Dec2006 $0.30
Dec2005 -$0.03
Dec2004 -$0.25
Dec2003 -$0.22

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Nasdaq Inc Valuation – April 2018 $NDAQ
Nasdaq Inc Valuation – July 2016 $NDAQ
24 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/28/15
Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $NDAQ
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 3/29/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

E*Trade Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $ETFC
Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MMC
Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ICE
H&R Block Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HRB
State Street Corp Valuation – January 2019 $STT
Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS
MSCI Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MSCI
BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

E*Trade Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $ETFC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): E*Trade Financial Corporation, incorporated on September 4, 2003, is a financial services company. The Company provides online brokerage and related products and services primarily to individual retail investors under the brand E*TRADE Financial. The Company also provides investor-focused banking products, primarily sweep deposits, to retail investors. It provides its services to customers through its digital platforms and network of industry-licensed customer service representatives and Financial Consultants, over the phone and by e-mail. It operates federally chartered savings banks with the primary purpose of maximizing the value of deposits generated through its brokerage business. The Company’s hybrid service delivery model is delivered through various digital platforms: E*TRADE and OptionsHouse products. It offers trading applications for smartphones, tablets and watches, which manages accounts and offers stock and portfolio alerts. Its active trading platform is a software-based trading application that offers trading tools, idea generation and analysis, and advanced portfolio and market tracking. Its digital platforms are complemented by its offline channels, which include its network of customer service representatives and financial consultants and its round the clock customer service available via phone, e-mail and online.

ETFC Chart

ETFC data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ETFC – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,745,487,126 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -171.59% Fail
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 18.96 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.84 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.51
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $96.66
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $36.40
MG Value based on 0% Growth $21.34
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.23%
Current Price $47.59
% of Intrinsic Value 49.23%

E*TRADE Financial Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.4 in 2014 to an estimated $2.51 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.23% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into E*TRADE Financial Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $46.23. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 18.96, which was above the industry average of 18.

E*TRADE Financial Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $46.23
PEmg 18.96
PB Ratio 1.84
Dividend Yield 0.00%
TTM Dividend $0.00
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $1,409,000,000
Total Assets $65,003,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,976,000,000
Total Liabilities $58,441,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 254,239,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.06
Dec2017 $2.15
Dec2016 $1.98
Dec2015 $0.91
Dec2014 $1.00
Dec2013 $0.29
Dec2012 -$0.39
Dec2011 $0.54
Dec2010 -$0.13
Dec2009 -$11.85
Dec2008 -$10.00
Dec2007 -$34.00
Dec2006 $14.40
Dec2005 $11.20
Dec2004 $9.90
Dec2003 $5.50
Dec2002 -$5.20
Dec2001 -$7.30
Sep2000 $0.60
Sep1999 -$2.10
Sep1998 -$0.10

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.51
Dec2017 $1.58
Dec2016 $1.12
Dec2015 $0.61
Dec2014 $0.40
Dec2013 -$0.71
Dec2012 -$2.26
Dec2011 -$5.82
Dec2010 -$8.78
Dec2009 -$10.75
Dec2008 -$7.37
Dec2007 -$3.57
Dec2006 $10.15
Dec2005 $6.29
Dec2004 $2.79
Dec2003 -$1.07
Dec2002 -$3.85

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

E*Trade Financial Corp Valuation – July 2016 $ETFC
58 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/31/15
E*Trade Financial Corporation Annual Valuation – 2015 $ETFC
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 1/18/14
ModernGraham Valuation: E*Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC)

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MMC
Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ICE
H&R Block Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HRB
State Street Corp Valuation – January 2019 $STT
Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS
MSCI Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MSCI
BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $COF

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MMC

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., incorporated on March 17, 1969, is a professional services firm offering clients advice and solutions in risk, strategy and people. The Company is the parent company of various risk advisors and specialty consultants, including Marsh, the insurance broker, intermediary and risk advisor; Guy Carpenter, the risk and reinsurance specialist; Mercer, the provider of human resource (HR) and investment related financial advice and services, and Oliver Wyman Group, the management, economic and brand consultancy. The Company conducts business through two segments: Risk and Insurance Services, which includes risk management activities (risk advice, risk transfer and risk control and mitigation solutions), as well as insurance and reinsurance broking and services, and Consulting includes health, retirement, talent and investments consulting services and products, and specialized management, economic and brand consulting services.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MMC – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $42,064,656,156 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.26 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 169.15% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 25.27 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.65 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.26 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.45 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.31
MG Growth Estimate 6.56%
MG Value $71.48
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $47.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $28.10
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.38%
Current Price $83.51
% of Intrinsic Value 116.83%

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.3 in 2014 to an estimated $3.31 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $35.49. The company pays a dividend of $1.43 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.27, which was above the industry average of 18. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-14.95.

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$14.95
Graham Number $35.49
PEmg 25.27
Current Ratio 1.26
PB Ratio 5.65
Current Dividend $1.43
Dividend Yield 1.71%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $5,966,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,727,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,512,000,000
Total Assets $21,129,000,000
Intangible Assets $10,764,000,000
Total Liabilities $13,591,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 510,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.87
Dec2017 $2.87
Dec2016 $3.38
Dec2015 $2.98
Dec2014 $2.65
Dec2013 $2.43
Dec2012 $2.13
Dec2011 $1.79
Dec2010 $1.55
Dec2009 $0.42
Dec2008 -$0.14
Dec2007 $4.53
Dec2006 $1.76
Dec2005 $0.74
Dec2004 $0.33
Dec2003 $2.81
Dec2002 $2.45
Dec2001 $1.70
Dec2000 $2.05
Dec1999 $1.31
Dec1998 $1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.31
Dec2017 $2.97
Dec2016 $2.92
Dec2015 $2.59
Dec2014 $2.30
Dec2013 $1.97
Dec2012 $1.54
Dec2011 $1.38
Dec2010 $1.32
Dec2009 $1.29
Dec2008 $1.63
Dec2007 $2.36
Dec2006 $1.39
Dec2005 $1.34
Dec2004 $1.71
Dec2003 $2.29
Dec2002 $1.95

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Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Valuation – March 2018 $MMC
5 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/16/16
Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc Valuation – July 2016 $MMC
26 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/6/16
Marsh & McLennan Company Valuation – January 2016 Update $MMC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ICE
H&R Block Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HRB
State Street Corp Valuation – January 2019 $STT
Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS
MSCI Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MSCI
BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $COF
Total System Services Inc Valuation – December 2018 $TSS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – January 2019 $ICE

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., incorporated on March 6, 2013, is an operator of regulated exchanges, clearing houses and listings venues. The Company provides data services for commodity and financial markets. The Company’s segments include Trading and Clearing segment, and Data and Listings segment. The Trading and Clearing segment includes the Company’s transaction-based execution and clearing businesses. The Company’s Data and Listings segment includes its subscription-based data services and securities listings businesses. The Company operates regulated marketplaces for listing, trading and clearing a range of derivatives and securities contracts across the asset classes, including energy and agricultural commodities, interest rates, equities, equity derivatives, exchange traded funds, credit derivatives, bonds and currencies. The Company offers market data services to support the trading, investment, risk management and connectivity needs of customers across a range of asset classes.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of ICE – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $43,077,628,792 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.00 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 196.61% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.50 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.58 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.00 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 28.21 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.09
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $118.84
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $44.76
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.24
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.00%
Current Price $75.63
% of Intrinsic Value 63.64%

Intercontinental Exchange Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.3 in 2014 to an estimated $3.09 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Intercontinental Exchange Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $45.72. The company pays a dividend of $0.8 per share, for a yield of 1.1% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.5, which was above the industry average of 18. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.79.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.79
Graham Number $45.72
PEmg 24.50
Current Ratio 1.00
PB Ratio 2.58
Current Dividend $0.80
Dividend Yield 1.06%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $61,295,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $61,065,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,488,000,000
Total Assets $87,242,000,000
Intangible Assets $23,379,000,000
Total Liabilities $70,388,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 576,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.20
Dec2017 $4.23
Dec2016 $2.37
Dec2015 $2.28
Dec2014 $1.71
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 $1.50
Dec2011 $1.38
Dec2010 $1.07
Dec2009 $0.85
Dec2008 $0.83
Dec2007 $0.68
Dec2006 $0.48
Dec2005 -$0.08
Dec2004 $0.08
Dec2003 $0.07
Dec2002 $0.07
Dec2001 $0.05

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.09
Dec2017 $2.77
Dec2016 $1.93
Dec2015 $1.64
Dec2014 $1.30
Dec2013 $1.09
Dec2012 $1.25
Dec2011 $1.07
Dec2010 $0.87
Dec2009 $0.70
Dec2008 $0.55
Dec2007 $0.35
Dec2006 $0.17
Dec2005 $0.02
Dec2004 $0.07
Dec2003 $0.05
Dec2002 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – March 2018 $ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc Valuation – July 2016 $ICE
21 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/9/15
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $ICE
18 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 5/17/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

H&R Block Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HRB
State Street Corp Valuation – January 2019 $STT
Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS
MSCI Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MSCI
BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $COF
Total System Services Inc Valuation – December 2018 $TSS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – November 2018 $GS

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

H&R Block Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HRB

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): H&R Block, Inc. (H&R Block), incorporated on July 27, 1955, through its subsidiaries, provides tax preparation and other services. The Company provides assisted income tax return preparation, digital do-it-yourself (DIY) tax solutions and other services and products related to income tax return preparation to the general public primarily in the United States, Canada, Australia and their respective territories. Assisted income tax return preparation and related services are provided by tax professionals through a system of retail offices operated directly by the Company or its franchisees. It offers tax support, planning, and business accounting and advisory services to its clients. The Company offers a range of online tax services, including preparation of federal and state income tax returns, review of tax returns by a tax professional, access to tax tips, advice and tax-related news, use of calculators for tax planning, error checking and electronic filing.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HRB – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,230,687,756 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.04 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 80.99% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.39 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -166.97 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.04 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.05
MG Growth Estimate 4.87%
MG Value $37.46
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $29.78
MG Value based on 0% Growth $17.46
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.95%
Current Price $25.45
% of Intrinsic Value 67.94%

H & R Block Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.55 in 2015 to an estimated $2.05 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.95% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into H & R Block Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $8.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.96 per share, for a yield of 3.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.39, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.68.

H & R Block Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$6.68
Graham Number $8.61
PEmg 12.39
Current Ratio 2.04
PB Ratio -166.97
Current Dividend $0.96
Dividend Yield 3.77%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2018
Total Current Assets $891,002,000
Total Current Liabilities $435,721,000
Long-Term Debt $1,491,328,000
Total Assets $2,233,296,000
Intangible Assets $871,715,000
Total Liabilities $2,264,621,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 205,520,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.75
Apr2018 $2.91
Apr2017 $1.91
Apr2016 $1.49
Apr2015 $1.71
Apr2014 $1.72
Apr2013 $1.58
Apr2012 $0.89
Apr2011 $1.31
Apr2010 $1.43
Apr2009 $1.45
Apr2008 -$0.95
Apr2007 -$1.34
Apr2006 $1.47
Apr2005 $1.85
Apr2004 $1.92
Apr2003 $1.30
Apr2002 $1.17
Apr2001 $0.77
Apr2000 $0.64
Apr1999 $0.54

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.05
Apr2018 $2.12
Apr2017 $1.71
Apr2016 $1.57
Apr2015 $1.55
Apr2014 $1.44
Apr2013 $1.31
Apr2012 $1.06
Apr2011 $0.89
Apr2010 $0.59
Apr2009 $0.28
Apr2008 -$0.01
Apr2007 $0.66
Apr2006 $1.62
Apr2005 $1.60
Apr2004 $1.37
Apr2003 $1.02

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Best Dividend Paying Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – September 2018
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – May 2018
10 Best Dividend Paying Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – May 2018
H&R Block Inc Valuation – March 2018 $HRB
H&R Block Inc Valuation – June 2016 $HRB

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

State Street Corp Valuation – January 2019 $STT
Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS
MSCI Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MSCI
BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $COF
Total System Services Inc Valuation – December 2018 $TSS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – November 2018 $GS
KKR & Co Inc Valuation – September 2018 $KKR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

State Street Corp Valuation – January 2019 $STT

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): State Street Corporation, incorporated on October 16, 1969, is a financial holding company. The Company operates through two lines of business: Investment Servicing and Investment Management. The Company, through its subsidiary, State Street Bank and Trust Company (State Street Bank), provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors across the world. Its clients include mutual funds, collective investment funds and other investment pools, corporate and public retirement plans, insurance companies, foundations, endowments and investment managers.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of STT – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $26,077,890,728 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 567.19% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.32 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.06 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.58
MG Growth Estimate 4.73%
MG Value $100.16
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $80.90
MG Value based on 0% Growth $47.42
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.91%
Current Price $68.71
% of Intrinsic Value 68.60%

State Street Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.24 in 2014 to an estimated $5.58 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into State Street Corp revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $89.66. The company pays a dividend of $1.6 per share, for a yield of 2.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.32, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

State Street Corp fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $89.66
PEmg 12.32
PB Ratio 1.06
Dividend Yield 2.33%
TTM Dividend $1.60
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $10,335,000,000
Total Assets $234,007,000,000
Intangible Assets $7,477,000,000
Total Liabilities $209,454,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 379,383,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.87
Dec2017 $5.24
Dec2016 $4.97
Dec2015 $4.47
Dec2014 $4.53
Dec2013 $4.43
Dec2012 $4.20
Dec2011 $3.79
Dec2010 $3.09
Dec2009 -$4.32
Dec2008 $4.30
Dec2007 $3.45
Dec2006 $3.29
Dec2005 $2.50
Dec2004 $2.35
Dec2003 $2.15
Dec2002 $3.10
Dec2001 $1.90
Dec2000 $1.82
Dec1999 $1.89
Dec1998 $1.33

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.58
Dec2017 $4.87
Dec2016 $4.63
Dec2015 $4.40
Dec2014 $4.24
Dec2013 $3.48
Dec2012 $2.74
Dec2011 $2.03
Dec2010 $1.42
Dec2009 $1.00
Dec2008 $3.50
Dec2007 $2.98
Dec2006 $2.73
Dec2005 $2.43
Dec2004 $2.35
Dec2003 $2.29
Dec2002 $2.24

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

State Street Corp Valuation – March 2018 $STT
Best Stocks to Invest In: the Bank Industry – August 2016
12 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 7/1/16
State Street Corp Valuation – June 2016 $STT
9 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/28/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS
MSCI Inc Valuation – January 2019 $MSCI
BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $COF
Total System Services Inc Valuation – December 2018 $TSS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – November 2018 $GS
KKR & Co Inc Valuation – September 2018 $KKR
CorVel Corp Valuation – August 2018 $CRVL

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Morgan Stanley Valuation – January 2019 $MS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Morgan Stanley, incorporated on October 1, 1981, is a financial holding company. The Company is engaged in global financial services. The Company, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, advises, and originates, trades, manages and distributes capital for governments, institutions and individuals. The Company’s segments include Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the Company provides a range of products and services to a group of clients and customers, including corporations, governments, financial institutions and individuals.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of MS – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $73,072,141,132 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 245.31% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.29 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.92 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.46
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $133.06
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $50.11
MG Value based on 0% Growth $29.38
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.90%
Current Price $42.48
% of Intrinsic Value 31.93%

Morgan Stanley is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.23 in 2014 to an estimated $3.46 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.9% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Morgan Stanley revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $63.69. The company pays a dividend of $0.9 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.29, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Morgan Stanley fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $63.69
PEmg 12.29
PB Ratio 0.92
Dividend Yield 2.12%
TTM Dividend $0.90
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $189,949,000,000
Total Assets $865,517,000,000
Intangible Assets $8,920,000,000
Total Liabilities $785,443,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,727,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.68
Dec2017 $3.07
Dec2016 $2.92
Dec2015 $2.90
Dec2014 $1.60
Dec2013 $1.36
Dec2012 -$0.02
Dec2011 $1.23
Dec2010 $2.63
Dec2009 -$0.77
Nov2008 $1.45
Nov2007 $2.98
Nov2006 $7.07
Nov2005 $4.57
Nov2004 $4.06
Nov2003 $3.45
Nov2002 $2.69
Nov2001 $3.11
Nov2000 $4.73
Nov1999 $4.10
Nov1998 $2.67

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.46
Dec2017 $2.69
Dec2016 $2.25
Dec2015 $1.74
Dec2014 $1.23
Dec2013 $0.99
Dec2012 $0.84
Dec2011 $1.35
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $1.97
Nov2008 $3.57
Nov2007 $4.56
Nov2006 $5.03
Nov2005 $3.86
Nov2004 $3.54
Nov2003 $3.39
Nov2002 $3.40

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Most Undervalued Stocks of the S&P 500 – August 2018
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2018
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – April 2018
Morgan Stanley Valuation – March 2018 $MS
Morgan Stanley Valuation – June 2016 $MS

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

BlackRock Inc Valuation – January 2019 $BLK
Ameriprise Financial Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AMP
Invesco Ltd Valuation – January 2019 $IVZ
Capital One Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $COF
Total System Services Inc Valuation – December 2018 $TSS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc Valuation – November 2018 $GS
KKR & Co Inc Valuation – September 2018 $KKR
CorVel Corp Valuation – August 2018 $CRVL
Jones Lang LaSalle Inc Valuation – August 2018 $JLL
Investment Technology Group Inc Valuation – July 2018 $ITG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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