PNC Financial Services Group Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PNC

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. engages in the provision of diversified financial services, including retail and business banking; residential mortgage banking; specialized services for corporations and government entities, including corporate banking, real estate finance and asset-backed lending; wealth management and asset management. It operates through the following segments: Retail Banking, Corporate & Institutional Banking, Asset Management Group, Residential Mortgage Banking, BlackRock and Non-Strategic Assets Portfolio. The Retail Banking segment provides deposit, lending, brokerage, trust, investment management, and cash management services to consumer and small business customers within its primary geographic markets. The Corporate & Institutional segment provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services to mid-sized corporations, government and not-for-profit entities, and selectively to large corporations. The Asset Management Group segment includes personal wealth management for high net worth and ultra high net worth clients and institutional asset management. The Residential Mortgage Banking segment directly originates primarily first lien residential mortgage loans on a nationwide basis with a significant presence within the retail banking footprint, and also originates loans through majority and minority owned affiliates. Mortgage loans represent loans collateralized by one-to-four-family residential real estate. The BlackRock segment manages assets on behalf of institutional and individual investors worldwide through a variety of equity, fixed income, multi-asset class, alternative and cash management separate accounts and funds, including iShares. The Non-Strategic Assets Portfolio segment offers commercial residential development loans, cross-border leases, consumer brokered home equity loans, retail mortgages, non-prime mortgages, and residential construction loans. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, PA.

PNC Chart

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PNC – March 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $76,161,485,882 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 74.71% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 17.84 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.62 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.97
MG Growth Estimate 5.44%
MG Value $173.90
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $130.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $76.28
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.67%
Current Price $160.07
% of Intrinsic Value 92.05%

PNC Financial Services Group Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.59 in 2014 to an estimated $8.97 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.67% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into PNC Financial Services Group Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $149.13. The company pays a dividend of $2.6 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.84, which was below the industry average of 24.17, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $149.13
PEmg 17.84
PB Ratio 1.62
Dividend Yield 1.62%
TTM Dividend $2.60
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $59,088,000,000
Total Assets $380,768,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,005,000,000
Total Liabilities $333,255,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 480,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.84
Dec2017 $10.36
Dec2016 $7.30
Dec2015 $7.39
Dec2014 $7.30
Dec2013 $7.36
Dec2012 $5.28
Dec2011 $5.64
Dec2010 $5.74
Dec2009 $4.36
Dec2008 $2.44
Dec2007 $4.35
Dec2006 $8.73
Dec2005 $4.55
Dec2004 $4.21
Dec2003 $3.55
Dec2002 $4.15
Dec2001 $1.26
Dec2000 $4.31
Dec1999 $4.15
Dec1998 $3.60

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.97
Dec2017 $8.34
Dec2016 $7.20
Dec2015 $6.96
Dec2014 $6.59
Dec2013 $6.05
Dec2012 $5.16
Dec2011 $4.90
Dec2010 $4.73
Dec2009 $4.44
Dec2008 $4.61
Dec2007 $5.49
Dec2006 $5.72
Dec2005 $3.99
Dec2004 $3.64
Dec2003 $3.39
Dec2002 $3.37

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

12 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/14/15
PNC Financial Services Group Valuation – November 2015 Update $PNC
The Best Companies of the Banking Industry – October 2015
The 20 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 8/15/15
PNC Financial Services Group Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $PNC

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

KeyCorp Valuation – March 2018 $KEY
Canadian Western Bank Valuation – March 2018 $TSE-CWB
Simmons First National Corp Valuation – March 2018 $SFNC
Citigroup Inc Valuation – March 2018 $C
People’s United Financial Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PBCT
JPMorgan Chase & Co Valuation – February 2018 $JPM
Opus Bank Valuation – Initial Coverage $OPB
Wells Fargo & Co Valuation – August 2017 $WFC
Old National Bancorp Valuation – Initial Coverage $ONB
Dime Community Bancshares Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DCOM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Equinix Inc Valuation – August 2016 $EQIX

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Equinix Inc (EQIX) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Equinix, Inc. is engaged in connecting companies to their customers and partners inside the interconnected data centers. The Company operates in three segments: Americas; Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific. The Company’s platform Equinix combines a footprint of International Business Exchange (IBX) data centers, interconnection opportunities and ecosystems. It offers colocation, interconnection solutions, and managed Information Technology infrastructure and professional services. Its Colocation offerings include cabinets, power and IBXflex. Its Interconnection offerings include Physical Cross Connect/Direct Interconnections, Equinix Internet Exchange, Equinix Metro Connect, Internet Connectivity Services, Equinix Cloud Exchange and Equinix Performance Hub. Its Equinix Professional Services include Cloud Consulting Services, Global Solutions Architects, Solution Validation Centers, Smart Hands Services, Equinix Customer Portal and Business Continuity Trading Rooms.

EQIX Chart

EQIX data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EQIX – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $25,925,869,962 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.34 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 31.51% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 129.62 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.34 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 9.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EQIX value chart August 2016

EPSmg $2.81
MG Growth Estimate 6.16%
MG Value $58.46
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $40.72
MG Value based on 0% Growth $23.87
Market Implied Growth Rate 60.56%
Current Price $363.98
% of Intrinsic Value 622.66%

Equinix Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.99 in 2012 to an estimated $2.81 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 60.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Equinix Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $105.77. The company pays a dividend of $6.88 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 129.62, which was above the industry average of 35.13. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-91.92.

Equinix Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

EQIX charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$91.92
Graham Number $105.77
PEmg 129.62
Current Ratio 1.34
PB Ratio 5.44
Current Dividend $6.88
Dividend Yield 1.89%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,095,429,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,559,779,000
Long-Term Debt $4,882,479,000
Total Assets $13,269,045,000
Intangible Assets $3,979,152,000
Total Liabilities $8,563,580,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 70,364,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.51
Dec2015 $3.21
Dec2014 -$4.96
Dec2013 $1.89
Dec2012 $2.83
Dec2011 $1.74
Dec2010 $0.82
Dec2009 $1.75
Dec2008 $2.79
Dec2007 -$0.16
Dec2006 -$0.22
Dec2005 -$1.78
Dec2004 -$3.87
Dec2003 -$8.76
Dec2002 -$7.23
Dec2001 -$76.62
Dec2000 -$111.06
Dec1999 -$159.11

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.81
Dec2015 $0.62
Dec2014 -$0.30
Dec2013 $1.96
Dec2012 $1.99
Dec2011 $1.51
Dec2010 $1.26
Dec2009 $1.15
Dec2008 $0.35
Dec2007 -$1.57
Dec2006 -$2.97
Dec2005 -$9.45
Dec2004 -$22.69
Dec2003 -$45.59
Dec2002 -$66.27
Dec2001 -$86.98
Dec2000 -$79.45

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Equinix Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $EQIX

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Qualcomm Inc Valuation – August 2016 $QCOM
Verisign Inc Valuation – August 2016 $VRSN
Akamai Technologies Inc Valuation – August 2016 $AKAM
Motorola Solutions Inc Valuation – August 2016 $MSI
F5 Networks Inc Valuation – July 2016 $FFIV
Computer Sciences Corp Valuation – July 2016 $CSC
Infosys Ltd Valuation – July 2016 $INFY
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Valuation – July 2016 $CTSH
Total System Services Inc Valuation – May 2016 $TSS
Qualcomm Inc Valuation – February 2016 $QCOM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

My Personal Holdings

Personal Holdings

I am often asked if I utilize the methods I teach here on ModernGraham, and the answer is yes.  I fully believe that Benjamin Graham’s methodology can be used in the market today, especially after taking time to analyze each one of his ideas and modernize it as needed.  The ModernGraham method can be a great way to narrow down investment opportunities to the strongest companies, and then a little bit of further research can help one determine in which companies to invest.

This series of posts looks at each of my personal holdings, putting them through a full ModernGraham valuation and adding a level of further research to provide rationale as to why I selected the company for my portfolio.

Allocations & Goals

Overall, the goal of this portfolio is to provide long-term growth to maximize retirement savings for my wife and me.  With that in mind, I strive to select companies that I believe will: (1) meet the ModernGraham requirements for the Enterprising Investor; (2) be rated as undervalued by the ModernGraham valuation model; and (3) qualitatively appear to have a long-term business strategy that will generate steady results for an extended period of time.  Once I have purchased a company, I tend to hold onto it even if it fails to meet those requirements in order to minimize taxes and transaction costs.

With regard to allocations, Benjamin Graham taught that intelligent investors should aim to have portfolios invested 50% in equities and 50% in bonds during a normal market time, and adjust those percentages according to the individual investor’s situation and sentiment regarding the market as a whole.  Graham suggested the range allocable to either asset type should be 25-75% of the full portfolio.

At this time I believe the market is overvalued.  As a result, my equities holdings currently total more than 50% but less than 75% of the total portfolio while my contributions and dividends are currently being applied to the bond funds.

Out of concerns for diversification, I aim to limit each equity holding to 10% of the portfolio with no more than 20% allocated to any particular industry.

My Current Holdings

Primary Holdings

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Summary from latest valuation in April 2019

Apple Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.03 in 2015 to an estimated $10.11 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 5.48% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Apple Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $71.63. The company pays a dividend of $2.72 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.47, which was below the industry average of 35.4, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.09.

Apple Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Tapestry Inc. (TPR)

Summary from latest valuation in February 2019

Tapestry Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.61 in 2015 to an estimated $1.95 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 4.42% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tapestry Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $25.42. The company pays a dividend of $1.35 per share, for a yield of 4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 17.34, which was below the industry average of 27.33, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.17.

Tapestry Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Deere & Co. (DE)

Summary from latest valuation in January 2019

Deere & Company is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $7.5 in 2015 to an estimated $8.01 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.63% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Deere & Company revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $93.83. The company pays a dividend of $2.58 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.76, which was below the industry average of 23.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-39.08.

Deere & Company receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Dover Corporation (DOV)

Summary from latest valuation in January 2019

Dover Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.83 in 2014 to an estimated $4.41 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.9% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Dover Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $50.79. The company pays a dividend of $1.82 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.29, which was below the industry average of 23.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-21.78.

Dover Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Ford Motor Company (F)

Summary from latest valuation in November 2016

Ford Motor Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.8 in 2012 to an estimated $1.59 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 0.41% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Ford Motor Company revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $17.3. The company pays a dividend of $0.6 per share, for a yield of 4.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.68, which was below the industry average of 17.79, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.99.

Home Depot (HD)

Summary from latest valuation in February 2018

Home Depot Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.64 in 2015 to an estimated $7.14 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 8.95% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Home Depot Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $15.4. The company pays a dividend of $3.56 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.39, which was above the industry average of 25.98. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-20.69.

Invesco Ltd (IVZ)

Summary from latest valuation in July 2016

Invesco Ltd. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.3 in 2012 to an estimated $2.15 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.37% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

People’s United Financial Corp (PBCT)

Summary from latest valuation in June 2016

People’s United Financial, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.51 in 2012 to an estimated $0.83 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Tesoro Corporation (TSO)

Summary from latest valuation in February 2017

Tesoro Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.72 in 2012 to an estimated $7.14 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.59% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tesoro Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $75.72. The company pays a dividend of $2.05 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 11.67, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-62.03.

Western Digital Corp (WDC)

Summary from latest valuation in February 2017

Western Digital Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.63 in 2013 to an estimated $3.79 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.63% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Western Digital Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $53.68. The company pays a dividend of $2 per share, for a yield of 2.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.75, which was below the industry average of 28.12, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-29.38.

 

WestRock Co (WRK)

Summary from latest valuation in August 2016

WestRock Co qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.97 in 2012 to an estimated $3.02 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.98% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into WestRock Co revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $48.57. The company pays a dividend of $1.45 per share, for a yield of 3.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.46, which was below the industry average of 53.08, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-38.4.

iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (HYG)

No individual valuation completed – yet.

iShares IBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bd Fd (LQD)

No individual valuation completed – yet.

iShares Lehman 10-20 Yr Tresry Bond (TLH)

No individual valuation completed – yet.

Minor Holdings (less than 5 shares)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B)

Summary from latest valuation in August 2015

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is not suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Both investor types are turned off by the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should proceed only with a cautious and speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.15 in 2011 to an estimated $7.22 for 2015. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Summary from latest valuation in February 2018

Walt Disney Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.42 in 2014 to an estimated $5.6 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Walt Disney Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $60.93. The company pays a dividend of $1.56 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.62, which was below the industry average of 52.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.44.

Discovery Communications Analysis – 2015 Annual Update $DISCA

200px-Discovery_Communications.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – May 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Discovery Communications (DISCA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Discovery Communications, Inc. (Discovery) is a global media and entertainment company that provide programming across multiple distribution platforms around the world. The Company also has a diversified portfolio of Websites and other digital media services, develops and sells curriculum-based education products and services, and provides postproduction audio services. The Company operates through segments such as U.S. Networks and International Networks. The Company’s U.S. Networks, consists principally of domestic television networks and websites. Its International Networks consists principally of international television networks and websites. Discovery Holding Company (DHC) and Discovery Communications, LLC are the wholly-owned subsidiaries of the Company.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $33.96
MG Value $50.66
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $22.42
Value Based on 0% Growth $13.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.73%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$12.03
PEmg 21.97
Current Ratio 1.40
PB Ratio 4.28

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $2,469,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,765,000,000
Total Debt $7,036,000,000
Total Assets $15,782,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,998,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,493,000,000
Outstanding Shares 667,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $1.64
2014 $1.66
2013 $1.49
2012 $1.24
2011 $1.40
2010 $0.76
2009 $0.64
2008 $0.49
2007 -$0.12
2006 -$0.08
2005 $0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $1.55
2014 $1.44
2013 $1.25
2012 $1.06
2011 $0.85
2010 $0.50

Dividend History
Discovery Communications does not pay a dividend.

Conclusion:

As this stock analysis shows, Discovery Communications is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the lack of dividends and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets and the lack of of dividends.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) grow from $0.85 in 2011 to an estimated $1.55 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.73% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Discovery Communications (DISCA)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Water for Ethiopia: Bill Gates Matching Donations

Ethiopia WaterI regularly enjoy watching John Green’s vlog on YouTube, and recently he has been posting videos about a trip to Ethiopia he made earlier this year.  During his trip, he teamed up with Bill Gates to tour parts of the country and one of the biggest issues they found is a lack of access to water.  As a result, Mr. Green started a fundraiser in conjunction with Water.org, and Mr. Gates promised to match all donations dollar-for-dollar if over $100,000 was raised.  As of this morning, over $178,000 has been raised, so all donations will be matched by Mr. Gates.  ModernGraham is making a $100 contribution, and I encourage all readers to donate as you are able.  This is an opportunity for your contribution to go twice as far because of Mr. Gates’s pledge.

Mr. Green does an excellent job explaining some of the issues faced by the people of Ethiopia in this video:

In addition, here’s what Mr. Green has to say about the project:

If Nerdfighters come together and raise $100,000 for Ethiopia, Bill Gates will match it.

In July, I joined Bill Gates and the Gates Foundation on a trip to Ethiopia. I visited a hospital in Addis Ababa and various health outposts in rural Ethiopia, speaking to Ethiopian health workers about their day-to-day experiences and the fantastic progress of the country’s more recent investments in sustainable healthcare.

While Ethiopia’s under-5 mortality rate has dropped, the need for safe water and sanitation access persists; the health centers I visited with the Gates Foundation often did not have running water, and the people I spoke to almost always cited clean water as among their biggest needs. With a population of 96 million, 76 million Ethiopians have no sanitation services and 49 million do not have access to safe water.

To help change this, I invite you to support his fundraiser for Water.org. Co-founded by Matt Damon and Gary White, Water.org has been developing sustainable water solutions for more than 20 years. Through this fundraiser I hope to establish safe water access for 8,000 people in Ethiopia.

Ethiopian health workers are making incredible progress in healthcare, especially when it comes to women’s health and decreasing the infant mortality rate, but improving every Ethiopian’s access to safe water is critical for this work to continue. Thank you to everyone who has been able to donate and DFTBA.

Read more about John’s trip here.

Discovery Communications 2014 Annual Valuation $DISCA

200px-Discovery_Communications.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Lowest PEmg Companies for Enterprising Investors.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Discovery Communications (DISCA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Discovery Communications, Inc. (Discovery) is a global nonfiction media and entertainment company that provide programming across multiple distribution platforms worldwide. Discovery operates in three segments: U.S. Networks, International Networks and Education and Other. The Company’s U.S. Networks, consists principally of domestic cable and satellite television networks, Websites and other digital media services. Its International Networks consists primarily of international cable and satellite television networks and Websites. It’s Education and other consists principally of curriculum-based education product and service offerings and postproduction audio services. In November 2013, the Company announced it has acquired Espresso Group Limited, provider of primary school digital education content in the United Kingdom. Effective March 3, 2014, Discovery Communications Inc acquired Raw TV Ltd.

DISCA Chart

DISCA data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $78.20
MG Value $112.88
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $42.51
Value Based on 0% Growth $24.92
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.09%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.64
PEmg 26.67
Current Ratio 2.19
PB Ratio 2.93

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $2,740,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,253,000,000
Total Debt $6,900,000,000
Total Assets $15,311,000,000
Intangible Assets $10,788,000,000
Total Liabilities $9,131,000,000
Outstanding Shares 231,200,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $3.50
2013 $2.97
2012 $2.51
2011 $2.80
2010 $1.47
2009 $1.30
2008 $0.85
2007 -$0.24
2006 -$0.16
2005 $0.12
2004 $0.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.93
2013 $2.50
2012 $2.11
2011 $1.68
2010 $0.96
2009 $0.60

Conclusion:

Discovery Communications does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The only Defensive Investor requirements the company satisfies are the market capitalization size and the current ratio.  Meanwhile, the Enterprising Investor has concerns with the high level of debt relative to the current assets and the lack of dividend payments.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Viacom (VIAB) and ModernGraham’s valuation of CBS Corporation (CBS).  From a valuation perspective, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.96 in 2010 to an estimated $2.93 for 2014.  This strong level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 9.09% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls well above the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Discovery Communications (DISCA)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Discovery Communications (DISCA) or any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Valuation: Agilent Technologies Inc. (A)

Company Review: Agilent Technologies Inc. (A)

Company Profile: Agilent Technologies Inc. (obtained via Google Finance)

Agilent Technologies, Inc. (Agilent), incorporated in May 1999, is a measurement company providing core bio-analytical and electronic measurement solutions to the communications, electronics, life sciences and chemical analysis industries. The Company has two businesses: the electronic measurement business and the bio-analytical measurement business. Agilent’s electronic measurement business focuses on the communications and electronics industries, while its bio-analytical measurement business focuses on the life sciences industry and on the environmental, chemical, food and petrochemical industries. The Company sells its products primarily through direct sales, and also utilizes distributors, resellers, manufacturer’s representatives, telesales and electronic commerce. During the fiscal year ended October 31, 2006 (fiscal 2006), 34% of the revenues were generated in the United States and 66% outside the United States.

 Business and Management Review

1) Is the business simple and understandable? 

Agilent Technologies Inc., a spin-off of Hewlett-Packard Company, was established in 1999 as a provider of bio-analytical and electronic measurement solutions to the communications, electronics, life sciences, and chemical analysis industries. Their business model consists of manufacturing and selling electronic and bio-analytical measurements through distributors, resellers, manufacturer’s representatives, telesales and electronic commerce.

 2) Does the business have a consistent operating history? 

Agilent has a long history of innovation and leadership in the communications, electronics, semiconductor, test and measurement, life sciences and chemical analysis industries. The company has a volatile operating history due in part to the HP spin-off, M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) and introduction of new technology. Overall, after its successful IPO in 1999, Agilent is now a fully independent company focusing on high-growth markets in communications, electronics and life sciences.  

3) Does the system have favorable long term prospects? 

As being recognized as the industry leader in the test and measurement market, we expect this company to remain strong. The weakening of the U.S. dollar will be a driver for the company’s future performance as they may boost their foreign sales, which constitutes 66% of the company’s total revenues. This company recently introduced the industry’s first probing solution for “Oscilloscope Measurements in Extreme Temperatures”, which will give engineers the ability to explore signals at temperatures ranging from -55 C to 150 C. Moreover, Agilant Technologies Inc. also introduced a low-cost, small-footprint “Automotive Test Solution with Essential Test Capabilities” that will minimize the cost for testing automotive body control and safety electronic modules. These product introductions and many successful mergers that Agilent Technologies Inc. had been a part of in recent years might be the main factors that may drive up its success.  We may need to keep an eye on Agilant Technologies Inc. fourth quarter earnings for Fiscal Year 2007 that will be disclosed on November 15th, as the earnings performance may give us a hint of where this company will be going in the future.

 4) Is management rational? 

Agilent Technologies Inc. Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and Net Profit Margin are higher than the industry, meaning that the management is outperforming their competitors in sales and profits. We do believe management has made the right decisions while running Agilant Technologies Inc.  

5) Is management candid with its shareholders? 

Investor relations’ website provides the opportunity of listening to conference calls and any other event that Agilant Technologies Inc. may webcast through this page. We have not doubt that management is candid with their investors.  

6) Does management resist the institutional imperative? 

We do not suspect that management is following the institutional imperative.  

Financial and Value ReviewDefensive

1) Size of firm 

It posses a market cap higher than two billion dollars. “Pass”.

 2) Strong financial condition 

This company has a current ratio greater than 2. “Pass”.

 3) Earnings stability 

Agilent Technologies Inc. has not shown position Net Income for the past ten years. “Fail”.

 4) Dividend record 

They have not constantly pay dividends for the past ten years. “Fail”.

 5) Earnings growth 

This company has experience a one-third increase in their EPS for the past 10 years. “Pass”.

 6) Price to earnings analysis 

Its PE ratio is greater than 20. “Fail”.

 7) Price to book analysis 

Agilent Technologies Inc. has PB and PB*PE ratios more than 2.5 and 50 respectively. “Fail”.

 Conclusion 

After poorly scoring 3 out of 8 in the Defensive Investor Test, we do not believe these investors should locate this company into their portfolios.

 Enterprising:
1) Strong financial condition
 

Agilent Technologies Inc. shows a current ratio higher than 1.5 and debt to NCA ratio lower than 1.1, meaning that both of these tests pass. “Pass”.

 2) Earnings stability 

This company has not sustained a positive Net Income for the past 5 years. “Fail”.

 3) Dividend record 

They are not paying dividends as of this date. “Fail”.

 4) Earnings growth 

This business has maintained a positive earnings growth for the past 5 years. “Pass”.

 5) Price 

The organization’s stock price is more than 150% net tangible assets. “Fail”.

 Conclusion: 

We do believe that this is not a good investment choice for Enterprising Investors, because this company has only pass 3 of the 5 tests.

 Valuation: 

We find the Fair value of Agilent Technologies to be $36.

.Opinion:

Since the company is trading at $36.35 we believe that the stock is fairly valued, but we do not find this company appropriate for neither Enterprise nor Defensive Investors. 

None of the staff at ModernGraham held a position in Agilent Technologies Inc. at the time of publication.  Also, please read our disclaimer and Our Methods.

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